Thursday, February 22, 2018

It's okay to be white

The women's hockey team thinks so, or at least one heroine among them does.

My wife had the replay from last night's game on. As we were watching the medals being given out, I made note of how aesthetically pleasing this line of healthy, nubile white women singing the national anthem and waving the stars and stripes was. As the flags of the US, Canada, and Norway were raised, I joked with my wife that #OlympicsSoWhite.

Then NBC cut to video of the team photo being taken:


Maybe there's a mundane hockey-centric meaning of the "it's okay" sign that I'm unaware of, but it looks like our girl wants the whole world to see that, indeed, it's okay to be white.

Nine of these women are Zs. Is this one? If she's a late millennial, well, she's just a little ahead of the curve!

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

Essence matters

Ann Coulter picked up the previous post on twatter. In her wake followed a flotilla of what Vox Day derisively refers to as "midwits". Some of the 'criticism' was cringe-inducingly terrible:


But some of it was reasonable enough:


Yes, following the link would've revealed that it applied to less than one-quarter of all responses, but the issue is worth addressing.

If we wanted the results of the poll to put the FBI/DOJ/Deep State in as unfavorable a light as possible, the graph would've looked something like this:


Just half of Clinton voters think the FBI is acting impartially, while majorities from every other group do not think they are doing so! Looks positively catastrophic for the FBI, as opposed to just bad, as is actually the case.

In the same way reporting that polling on the eve of the 2016 presidential election showed Hillary Clinton's support at 26% would have been technically true, since she garnered just under 66 million votes out of an adult population of 250 million, presenting it like this is intentionally misleading. There's a reason serious polling outfits restrict responses to likely voters, or preface questions to registered voters with "if you were voting today, ..."

Presenting the three different responses across 11 different demographic groups would leave us with 33 bars in the graph. It would be more obfuscating and overwhelming than clarifying.

What I'm always after in these exercises is the expression of general sentiment in a clear, concise way that is easy to comprehend. The source data is, except in the rare case where something is paywalled, directly linked to and freely accessible, and notes on presentation--in this case, that "unsure" responses were excluded--made clear.

In this case, the figures are from Reuters-Ipsos raw survey data, not from a write up on the results. Parenthetically, the poll was only administered for a week, no public release was made (so far as I'm aware), and it never showed up on the interactive polling explorer site's main page. It's almost as if this little doozy is one the bosses weren't too keen on getting out!

Monday, February 19, 2018

Fake Russia collusion calumny delivers body blow to FBI's credibility

The following graph shows the percentages of people, by selected demographic characteristics, who agree that some members of the FBI and DOJ are trying to delegitimatize president Trump through politically-motivated investigations (that's putting it mildly to say the least). The data comes from a Reuters Ipsos poll that was conducted the first week of February. "Unsure" answers, comprising less than one-quarter of all responses, are excluded (N = 2,417):


The Deep State may seem untouchable, but there is one thing no power center in the West can afford to lose: Legitimacy.

Nearly half of blacks and more than 1-in-3 Clinton voters suspect foul play. Majorities of other contingents of the Coalition of the Fringes smell something rotten.

The jig is up. The FBI's legitimacy is bleeding out. Mueller may throw another smoke bomb before slithering away, but the FBI has been harpooned.

Devin Nunes is a hero. May other supine congress critters and officials take inspiration from his ability to find a spine.

Trump's ability to leave every entity that tangles with him worse for the wear is really something to behold. The Bush family, the Clintons, the dinosaur media, the Pope, the GOPe, the Obama administration, the NFL, National Review, the FBI--he's landed body blows on the credibility of all of them. He pulls it off every single time.

Friday, February 16, 2018

Jewgenics

I recently asked if Mormons are alone among sizable population subgroups in the US in experiencing eugenic fertility patterns.

I failed to even evaluate Jews (there go my alt right credentials!). My thought process was the orthodox have lots of kids while secular Jews don't and the former are dullards while the latter have the highest mean IQ in the world. Ergo, Jewish fertility must be dysgenic.

There are limitations inherent in the GSS data on the 2% that make those assumptions difficult to put to the test here. Of the total Jewish survey sample, only 5% identify as orthodox. A plurality identifies as reform with the rest being conservative or "none of these". With only a handful of orthodox responses to work with, they can't be reliably separated out from the rest of the Jewish sample.

There is also the issue of Jewishness as a religion, an ethnicity, or some combination of the two. The survey only asks about Jewishness in the context of religion, not of ethnicity. Consequently, some portion of ethnic Jews surely identified as having no religion rather than as Jewish. Yet a lot of irreligious Jews must also be religiously identifying as Jewish as well, because the survey's contingent of religiously-identified Jews is, much to Isaac's relief, not particularly godly:


That said, among the mostly reform and conservative Jewish sample (n = 449), those with more on the ball make more out of their balls. Their fertility pattern is directionally similar to Mormons, but the Jewish fertility curve is shifted considerably to the left of the LDS one. For good measure, those who indicated they had no religion (n = 3,167) are also included, but only a fraction of this group is ethnically Jewish. To avoid language fluency issues, responses are restricted to those born in the US:


GSS variables used: JEW, RELIG(1)(2)(3)(4)(9), BORN(1), WORDSUM(0-5)(6-7)(8-10), GOD(1-2)(3-5)(6)